The 2027 Promise: Why Soho House is Selling a "Ranch" That Doesn't Exist Yet
In CEO Andrew Carnie's December 12, 2025, email to members, Soho House & Co. highlights upcoming West Coast projects: Soho Desert House Palm Springs and Soho Ranch House Sonoma, both slated for 2027[1]. These announcements paint a picture of expansive luxury, but scrutiny reveals they may function primarily as retention tools amid current challenges.
The Lede: Aspirational Expansions Amid Present Pressures
Carnie's message positions these ventures as exciting additions, with Palm Springs featuring club spaces and a massive pool, and Sonoma offering 50 cottages across vineyards[1]. However, with no active planning applications evident and a history of project setbacks, the 2027 timeline echoes past 'promises' that have kept members hopeful while addressing immediate dissatisfaction[2][3].
Context: Delayed Developments and Regulatory Realities
Soho Desert House Palm Springs builds on earlier ambitions. Initial plans for the Colony 29 property in 2022 aimed for a 2024 opening but were canceled in 2023 due to 'bureaucratic challenges' with city approvals[4][5]. The revived concept shifts to the Coachella Valley, yet searches of Palm Springs development permits show no current Soho-related filings, suggesting early-stage planning at best[6].
Similarly, Soho Ranch House Sonoma lacks verifiable progress. Sonoma County planning records, accessible via Permit Sonoma, reveal no applications tied to Soho House & Co. for vineyard resorts or similar developments[7][8]. California's regulatory environment for resort builds is notoriously stringent, involving environmental reviews, water rights, and zoning hurdles that can delay projects for years[9][10].
Contrast this with low-effort enhancements like adding pickleball courts to Soho House Holloway's rooftop, mentioned as a 2026 update[1]. Such additions require minimal capex and permits compared to ground-up resorts, highlighting a strategic pivot to quick wins amid financial pressures post-privatization[11].
The 'Ranch' model mirrors Soho Farmhouse's successful formula: high average daily rates (ADR) from luxury accommodations like cottages, blending club access with premium hotel revenue[12][13]. This shift from urban clubs to rural retreats could boost 'Other Revenues,' which grew 15.8% in Q3 2025[14], but execution remains uncertain.
Analysis: The Retention Strategy
These announcements coincide with widespread overcrowding complaints at West Hollywood and Soho Warehouse in Los Angeles. Members report long waits, poor service, and diluted exclusivity, prompting Soho House to halt new admissions in LA, New York, and London since 2023[15][16]. Retention rates, not publicly detailed quarterly since IPO, are critical for a debt-laden company[17].
By teasing 2027 openings, Soho House & Co. may aim to stem cancellations among West Coast members, leveraging the 'promise' of future relief to maintain revenue streams[18]. Historical parallels, like delayed European projects, suggest such tactics buy time while navigating capex constraints[19].
The Unofficial Angle: Implications for Investors and Members
For investors in the now-private entity, these long-lead projects signal a focus on high-margin hospitality but raise execution risks in California's permitting maze[9]. Members, facing current frustrations, might view the 2027 horizon as a distant mirage, potentially eroding trust if timelines slip further[20]. As debt service looms, balancing hype with delivery will be key to sustaining the brand's allure.
Disclaimer: This article is an independent publication. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operated by Soho House & Co. Information is based on public sources and fair use principles for commentary and criticism. No endorsement is implied.
