The Invisible Pool & The Ghost of Tulum: Deconstructing Andrew Carnie's 2026 Roadmap
In his December 12, 2025, email to members, Soho House & Co. CEO Andrew Carnie outlines a robust plan for 2026, emphasizing refreshes, wellness expansions, and new openings. However, a detailed examination uncovers patterns of delayed projects and aspirational imagery that may overpromise progress.
The Lede: Glossy Visions vs. Ground Realities
Carnie's message highlights 2025 successes and teases 2026 developments, including Soho House Los Cabos with a captioned 'View from our pool' image showing undeveloped terrain[1]. This visual choice prompts questions about construction status, especially given historical delays in similar projects.
Context: A Legacy of Deferred Openings
Soho House & Co.'s expansion track record shows repeated postponements. Los Cabos, initially slated for late 2024[2], now appears delayed to late 2025 or early 2026[3]. Construction updates are sparse, with no recent verifiable images of completed facilities[4].
Scorpios Tulum exemplifies the 'ghost project' phenomenon. Announced in early 2024 for a June opening[5], it shifted to later 2025[6]. Despite fanfare, including a 2025 Instagram post anticipating a beachfront debut[7], no firm date exists, echoing member frustrations over unfulfilled promises.
European 'planned' sites like Milan, Madrid, and Lisbon follow suit. Milan was first mentioned in 2019 with plans for a Brera district location featuring a rooftop bar and pool[8], but updates in 2024 pushed openings to 'coming years'[9]. Madrid, announced in 2024 for 2025[10], lacks concrete progress indicators. Lisbon remains conceptual, with no historical announcements beyond recent plans[11]. Soho Farmhouse Tuscany, newly teased, has minimal details and no prior timeline[12].
Analysis: Job Postings as Reality Check
Job advertisements often signal imminent openings, as seen with recent hires for operational roles in established sites. However, for pitched locations:
- Los Cabos: A General Manager posting expired in March 2025[13], with no current openings, suggesting stalled pre-opening efforts.
- Milan: Active roles include Event Producer and Recruitment Manager Europe (Milan-based)[14][15], indicating community-building but not full operational hiring.
- Madrid: Positions like Head of Membership and security suggest early stages[16].
- Lisbon: Only a Membership Manager for Cities Without Houses (CWH)[17], no physical house roles.
- Tuscany: No specific jobs[18].
Contrast this with Manchester, where pre-opening roles proliferated before its 2025 launch[19]. The absence of similar hiring for these sites implies delays.
Financially, Q3 2025 filings show revenue growth but capex focused on existing assets amid privatization[20]. Delays may stem from debt management post-$2.7B buyout[21].
The Unofficial Angle: Membership Implications and CWH Dynamics
Announcements may drive pre-opening sign-ups via CWH membership, offering global access without local houses[22]. Present in over 80 cities, CWH builds communities and revenue with minimal overhead[23]. Critics argue it encourages dues from hopefuls in announced markets, only for delays to extend waits[24]. Milan's 2019 tease likely spurred Italian sign-ups, yet six years later, no opening[8]. Similar patterns in other sites could frustrate members, fueling cancellations and perceptions of brand dilution[25].
Social sentiment reflects this:
Analysts note post-privatization risks, including membership floods to service debt, potentially eroding exclusivity[26].
For stakeholders, these gaps underscore execution challenges in a leveraged environment.
Disclaimer: This article is an independent publication. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operated by Soho House & Co. Information is based on public sources and fair use principles for commentary and criticism. No endorsement is implied.
